Bracket Report: Jan 21
This week we have a new number 1 seed in San Diego St. The Aztecs are undefeated and have 3 quad 1 and 3 quad 2 wins. This is good enough for us to move them up. Seeds 2-3 find a bunch of teams with similar resumes. We had a huge discussion between Florida St and Louisville for the last 2 seed. Dayton is impressive as well but fell to #13 overall and the first 4 seed. The Iowa Hawkeyes enter the top 4 seed lines this week
Teams seeded 17-25 overall on our list are relatively safe right now. Beginning with #25 LSU through #32 Illinois we find a lot of teams with work still to do to ensure a berth in the tournament. The BIG 10 teams all have interesting resumes. Indiana has two top 20 NET wins which keeps them afloat. Also all of their losses come to teams in top 32 of the NET. Rutgers is an 8 seed for us this week and possibly are better than that. Wichita St joins this group after two losses this week because they only have 1 quad 1 win at this time
SEEDS 9-11- BUBBLE IN
Teams on our 9 & 10 seed lines are in easily if season ended today. Still need to accumulate wins to make sure. Houston winning at Wichita St really helped move them off the cut line. They are our first 10 seed and may even be better. Teams right above Houston had good weeks as well making it hard for them to move up more. NC St and USC are two such teams. Our 11 seeds are where you find the teams in most jeopardy of falling out of our bracket. We really believe our last three teams, Virginia Tech, Georgetown and Richmond must win this week or will drop out. The other three teams DePaul, St. Mary’s and BYU are one bad week away from the wrong side of the bubble. Only DePaul has a winning record in quad 1 games among our 11 seeds. DePaul & St. Mary’s are the only 11 seeds with over .500 records in quad 1 & 2 combined.
Purdue and Minnesota are both deserving because of the tough schedules they play and that both have some nice quality wins. We just decided that 10-8 records overall are concerning and so we have both of these teams in our 1st four out. A solid week and maybe an upset on the road will push these teams in the bracket.
VCU, UNCG, YALE, and ST. LOUIS are all mid majors to watch on our bubble list. These teams have quad 1 and quad 2 wins, just not as many as some other bubble teams. They have limited opportunities to get more. However, last year the committee found a way to include Belmont in the field. If they do so this year, it may be one of these teams or Richmond staying in the field. Something to keep an eye on.
Teams without any quad 3 or 4 losses must be watched. If these teams win some games in the next few weeks they may move in the field. These teams include; Tennessee, Georgia, Texas and Syracuse.